The commercial dollar has soared in the last seven days, accumulating a high of 5.26% and closing at R$ 5.26 last Friday, April 14th. Consequently, this significant appreciation generated apprehension in the financial market and raised questions about the factors that drove it.
Combination of internal and external factors
The rise in the dollar is the result of a combination of internal and external factors, which have intensified recently. In this sense, among the main elements that contributed to the appreciation of the US currency in the Brazilian market, we can highlight:
- Fiscal uncertainty: The Brazilian fiscal scenario is still considered uncertain by investors, especially after the PEC dos Precatórios was postponed. This uncertainty leads to an increase in the perception of risk, which negatively influences the value of the real;
- US interest rates on the rise: THE Federal Reserve (Fed), central bank of the United States, raised the base interest rate by 0.25% last week, with the prospect of new increases soon. This increase in US interest rates makes fixed income investments in Brazil less attractive, leading to the flight of foreign capital and consequently the appreciation of the dollar;
- War in Ukraine: The war in Ukraine continues to generate instability in the global market, which leads investors to seek assets considered safer, such as the US dollar;
- Falling commodity prices: Commodities, such as oil and iron ore, have seen their prices pressured in recent days, which negatively affects Brazilian exports and contributes to the devaluation of the real;
- Economic slowdown: The devaluation of the real could make credit more expensive for companies and consumers, which could lead to a slowdown in economic activity;
- Loss of export competitiveness: Brazilian exports become less competitive on the international market with the appreciation of the dollar, which could affect the country's trade balance;
- Impact on market pipelines: becomes more expensive with the appreciation of the dollar, which can put pressure on the prices of final products for the consumer.
Prospects for the future
The outlook for the dollar in the short term is volatile, as the US currency may continue to rise or fall. Depending on the evolution of the factors that influence its value, it is necessary to closely monitor exchange rate fluctuations. Therefore, for those who need to make transactions in foreign currency, it is essential to be aware of market trends.
In the medium and long term, the performance of the dollar depends on several factors, such as fiscal improvements in Brazil. Don't waste time!
It is important to emphasize that the financial market is dynamic. Furthermore, the information above constitutes only an analysis of the current situation.
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